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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked360every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate92.95%145 hit · 11 miss · 204 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-78 · 29 Oct 2026 · open →Next criterion due6 Nov 2026P-178 · Rheinmetall 9M 2026 sales · open →

May 202722 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.92India4 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.91India5 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-353CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027 >= INR 33,500 crore (SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR: 20-25% guide implies INR 35,508cr but H1 grew only 4.6%) — ~0.89India5 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.91India6 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.90India8 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.90India10 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-350Godrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUEGodrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUE >= INR 35,500 crore (guidance INR 39,000cr; H1 banked INR 16,659cr; H2 needs INR 18,841cr vs INR 18,584cr a year earlier; bookings not revenue) — ~0.90India10 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.91India11 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.92India11 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-287Alstom FY2026/27 adjusted EBIT marginAlstom FY2026/27 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 6.0% (guidance ~6.5% confirmed; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027; EUR 102.8bn backlog) — ~0.90France12 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-299Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.91Japan12 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-321Britannia FY2027 EBITDA marginBritannia FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 15.0% (Q1 16.81% vs 16.38%; Q1 revenue reported as BOTH INR 5,000cr/+8.17% and INR 4,964cr/+9.5%, irreconcilable) — ~0.91India12 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-247Sony FY2026 operating incomeSony FY2026 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 1,600bn (guidance raised to JPY 1,720bn; Q1 carried ~JPY 80bn one-off tariff refunds) — ~0.90Japan14 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-328Cipla FY2027 EBITDA marginCipla FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 16.0% (guidance 18.5-20% MAINTAINED while Q1 printed 16.7%, down 881bp YoY from 25.56%; locked BELOW guidance deliberately) — ~0.91India14 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-290Experian FY2027 organic revenue growthExperian FY2027 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 5.0% (guidance 6-8% maintained; Q1 was +10% actual / +8% cc / +7% organic; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027) — ~0.92United Kingdom19 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-242Infratil FY2027 proportionate operational EBITDAFInfratil FY2027 PROPORTIONATE OPERATIONAL EBITDAF excl. corporate costs >= NZ$1,250m (guidance NZ$1,300-1,400m) — ~0.91New Zealand20 May 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-313Sun Pharma FY2027 consolidated revenue growthSun Pharma FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 5.0% YoY in INR (guidance is the PHRASE 'high single digits', not a number; Q1 +10.46%) — ~0.92India20 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-358Bharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUEBharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUE from operations >= INR 30,500 crore (~15% growth target on INR 27,479.63cr; H1 +26%; H2 needs only +2.2%) — ~0.90India20 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-301Ryman Healthcare FY2027 build deliveryRyman FY2027 BUILD DELIVERY >= 150 units and beds (guidance 157-168; locked on countable output because FY26 was a NZ$171.3m loss driven by revaluations) — ~0.90New Zealand21 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-331Turners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBTTurners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBT >= NZ$58m (NZ$65m target pulled forward from FY2028 into FY2027 and HELD; FY26 record NZ$63.2m) — ~0.91New Zealand24 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-343ONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil productionONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil production >= 17.0 MMT (Q1 4.452 MMT; profit +112% to INR 17,034cr purely on realisation US$66.13→US$99.45/bbl with volumes FLAT — earnings declined as a price call) — ~0.92IndiaSaudi Arabia27 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-360India central government CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27India central CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27 >= INR 11,30,000 crore on CGA provisional actuals (BE INR 12,21,821cr; FY26 RE came in 2.3% below BE; NOT effective capex) — ~0.89India31 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked

August 202718 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in August 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-244Contact Energy FY2027 EBITDAFContact Energy FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (FY26 EBITDAF NZ$1,011m; floor set robust to the EBITDAF vs 'normalised EBITDA' label mismatch) — ~0.90New Zealand16 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-339Heartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPATHeartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPAT >= NZ$92m (guidance is a FLOOR — 'at least NZ$102m' — EXCLUDING TSB transaction costs; FY26 underlying NZ$90.4m vs REPORTED NZ$93.2m) — ~0.91New Zealand17 Aug 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-246Spark New Zealand FY2027 adjusted EBITDAISpark NZ FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAI >= NZ$980m (guidance NZ$1,010-1,080m; guidance credibility explicitly discounted) — ~0.89New Zealand18 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-306Fletcher Building FY2027 EBIT ex-propertyFletcher FY2027 EBIT before significant items EXCLUDING property sales >= NZ$300m (FY26 NZ$362m ex-property vs NZ$414m incl; management WARNED on 1H FY27) — ~0.88New Zealand18 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-243Auckland Airport FY2027 underlying profit after taxAuckland Airport FY2027 UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX >= NZ$280m (guidance NZ$290-330m; underlying not statutory) — ~0.90New Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-294EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91AustraliaNew Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-332Vulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAVulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$120m (FY26 NZ$130m; FY27 gets TWELVE months of Roofing Industries vs nine; NZ$130m EBITDA became NZ$18m NPAT) — ~0.91New Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-316Vector FY2027 adjusted EBITDAVector FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$500m (guidance NZ$540-560m; FY26 NZ$482m on the ComCom price reset; chosen as the UNCORRELATED counterweight to P-244/P-300/P-308) — ~0.91New Zealand20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-323SkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$150m (FY26 underlying NZ$181.6m vs REPORTED NZ$120.5m, NZ$61m apart; NO FY27 guidance; NZ$30m cost-out targeted) — ~0.90New Zealand20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-245a2 Milk FY2027 revenuea2 Milk FY2027 total REVENUE >= NZ$2,000m (DERIVED: mid-single-digit guided growth applied to the FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m; a rate was guided, not a level) — ~0.91New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-295Chorus FY2027 EBITDAChorus FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m (guidance NZ$730-760m; the regulated fibre network under Spark at P-246) — ~0.92New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-315Freightways FY2027 EBITAFreightways FY2027 EBITA >= NZ$160m (NO numeric FY27 guidance; management said 'softer for longer'; FY26 EBITA NZ$181.6m) — ~0.90New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-324Skellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPATSkellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPAT >= NZ$58m (FY26 NZ$64.2m, a TENTH straight record; net debt <NZ$2m; management sees 'no early signs of slowdown') — ~0.91New Zealand24 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-300Meridian Energy FY2027 EBITDAFMeridian FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$950m (guidance NZ$1,040-1,120m assuming NORMAL hydrology; FY26 NZ$1,051m vs FY25 NZ$611m drought — buffer 8.7% for rainfall) — ~0.89New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-307Port of Tauranga FY2027 underlying earningsPort of Tauranga FY2027 UNDERLYING earnings >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$160-175m; FY26 record NZ$155.3m; Air NZ scouted and DROPPED for withdrawing FY27 guidance) — ~0.91New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-308Mercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAFMercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (guidance is a POINT of NZ$1,075m conditioned on 4.1TWh hydro; FY26 NZ$1,068m; correlated with P-244 and P-300) — ~0.89New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-348Sky Network Television FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASky Network Television FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$155-165m excluding one-offs; FY26 reported NZ$170.2m ran ABOVE underlying NZ$157.0m) — ~0.90New Zealand27 Aug 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-349Delegat Group FY2027 GLOBAL CASE SALESDelegat Group FY2027 GLOBAL CASE SALES >= 3.25m (plan 3.4m; FY26 3.32m; the NZ$62-66m profit forecast is FX-driven, so we lock volume) — ~0.90New Zealand27 Aug 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked

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