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RAOSCAFF

The Prediction Series

Every lock, and every score.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known, and scored against that exact criterion afterwards — never against a directional impression. Misses are published in full.

345 locks · 80 resolved · 93.75% hit rate · the running scoreboard →

— Awaiting resolution

121–180 of 265

RAOSCAFF prediction locks, criterion not yet testable
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.9013 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.9214 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-226China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.9315 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-228China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.9315 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.9216 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.8717 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.7219 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.9320 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.9125 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.9325 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-241Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.9225 Nov 2026locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.7230 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.911 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.921 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.921 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.921 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)15 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260M21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.7821 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.9230 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.9230 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-end31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.9031 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.8531 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.7831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.8431 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.8831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.8231 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.9831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 202631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.9531 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.8031 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.8031 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.9231 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.9131 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.9031 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.9131 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.824 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.7815 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.9015 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.9415 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-259Canadian National FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS growthCN FY2026 ADJUSTED DILUTED EPS growth >= 3.0% (guidance raised to mid-to-high single digits; 3 EPS measures exist — adjusted diluted is the guided one) — ~0.9226 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-235ASML FY2026 total net salesASML FY2026 TOTAL NET SALES >= EUR 40bn (the TOP of the OLD guidance range, not the floor of the raised EUR 43-45bn) — ~0.9127 Jan 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-253SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.9227 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-236LVMH FY2026 revenueLVMH FY2026 reported group REVENUE >= EUR 76bn (seasonality-anchored; LVMH issues no revenue guidance) — ~0.9228 Jan 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-258Roche FY2026 sales growthRoche FY2026 GROUP sales growth >= 3% AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES (H1 +6% CER vs -2% CHF — opposite signs; level conflict so the RATE is locked) — ~0.9228 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-271KONE FY2026 adjusted EBIT marginKONE FY2026 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 11.8% (guidance 12.3-13% unchanged; threshold = the margin H1 already delivered) — ~0.9128 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-265Teva FY2026 revenueTeva FY2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 16.0bn (guidance raised to USD 16.5-16.8bn; total revenue, NOT the separately-guided product lines) — ~0.9229 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

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