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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked360every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate92.95%145 hit · 11 miss · 204 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-78 · 29 Oct 2026 · open →Next criterion due5 Nov 2026P-164 · Maersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA · open →

Showing 145 of 360 ·Hit ×Next 30 days ×Clear all

August 202617 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.United States10 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.United States7 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-38Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M.Japan6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-55Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M.not yet tagged6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.United States6 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0.India5 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.United States5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%.India5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-92Novo Nordisk Wegovy Q2 2026Novo Wegovy franchise sales grow Q2 > Q1 2026 — ~0.80HIT - Wegovy franchise grew Q2>Q1: Wegovy pill DKK 2,256M -> 3,141M (+885M QoQ); Novo beat on Wegovy and raised FY guidance, obesity-care sales up. Pill-driven; the injectable faced YoY price pressure.Denmark5 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.United States5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.United States5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn.United Kingdom5 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).United States4 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.United States4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).United States4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).United States2 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-37EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock).not yet tagged2 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

July 202623 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-91Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting.Japan31 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50.United States31 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%.United States30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%.United States30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%.United States30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%.United States30 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor).United States30 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut.United States29 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn.United States29 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-95Spotify Q2 2026 usersSpotify Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subs ≥296M — ~0.93HIT - Spotify Q2 MAU 777M (>=770M) and Premium subs 300M (>=296M).Sweden29 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-106SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profitSK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit ≥ ₩32tn — ~0.91HIT - SK Hynix Q2 operating profit ~KRW 60.5tn, >=KRW 32tn.South Korea29 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).United States29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.United States29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%.France28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.United States28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed.France26 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).India23 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.United States23 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-33Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedHIT - Samsung announced the Galaxy Z Fold 8 (+ Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8) at Unpacked on Jul 22.South Korea22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.United States22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.United States22 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.United States21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.United States21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit

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