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RAOSCAFF

The Prediction Series

Every lock, and every score.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known, and scored against that exact criterion afterwards — never against a directional impression. Misses are published in full.

345 locks · 80 resolved · 93.75% hit rate · the running scoreboard →

— All

61–120 of 345

RAOSCAFF prediction locks, every lock ever published
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.12 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.12 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.9 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.5 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-66Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets.2 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-09BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k.1 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Miss
P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Hit
P-137Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.952 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoY3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-140Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.854 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote share6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-179Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.939 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.9410 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.8211 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.7212 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.7013 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.9318 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynote23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.9325 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.9328 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.9529 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 close30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.9530 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.9030 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-141Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.901 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-145Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.931 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.943 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-59Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.884 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-162Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.938 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.938 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-263Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.9114 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.9215 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.9315 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-240TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.9315 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-89China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.9218 Oct 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-155Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.9320 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked

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