The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 60 of 345 ·United States ×Next 30 days ×Clear all
July 20268 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-134 | BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.United States | 15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-97 | JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-107 | Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-120 | Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-131 | Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.United States | 10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-118 | PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.United States | 9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-11 | 2026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).United States | 8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-05 | Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).United States | 2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
June 20263 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-65 | Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).United States | 24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |
| P-01 | US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).United States | 10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Hit |
September 20267 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-103 | Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteUnited States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeUnited States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-108 | US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
October 20262 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Locked |